AI SummaryAccess crowdsourced forecasting data from RAND's Forecasting Initiative for policy-relevant predictions on geopolitics, national security, and S&T policy. Ideal for developers building forecasting tools, decision-support systems, or needing calibrated base rates for predictions.
Install
Copy this and paste it into Claude Code, Cursor, or any AI assistant:
I want to install the "rfi" skill in my project. Please run this command in my terminal: # Install skill into the correct directory (2 files) mkdir -p .claude/skills/sdk-rfi && curl --retry 3 --retry-delay 2 --retry-all-errors -o .claude/skills/sdk-rfi/SKILL.md "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/chestnutforty/sdk-rfi/main/skills/sdk-rfi/SKILL.md" && mkdir -p .claude/skills/sdk-rfi/references && curl --retry 3 --retry-delay 2 --retry-all-errors -o .claude/skills/sdk-rfi/references/methods.md "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/chestnutforty/sdk-rfi/main/skills/sdk-rfi/references/methods.md" Then restart Claude Code (or reload the window in Cursor) so the skill is picked up.
Description
Crowdsourced forecasting questions and predictions from the RAND Forecasting Initiative (formerly INFER). Policy-relevant forecasting questions with crowd probabilities, individual forecaster predictions with rationales, and comments. Use for any question about geopolitics, national security, science and technology policy, or when you need calibrated crowd forecasts as base rates. All methods support cutoff_date for backtesting.
RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI)
SDK that provides access to the RAND Forecasting Initiative crowdsourced forecasting platform (formerly INFER, powered by Cultivate Labs). It covers policy-relevant forecasting questions with aggregated crowd probabilities and individual forecaster predictions with rationales.
Quick Start
`python from sdk_rfi import Client client = Client() # Uses RFI_EMAIL and RFI_PASSWORD env vars `
Key Methods
| Method | What it does | |--------|-------------| | client.questions.list(...) | List forecasting questions with filtering by status, tags, challenges, date ranges | | client.questions.get(question_id) | Get a specific question with answers and crowd probabilities | | client.prediction_sets.list(question_id=...) | Get individual forecaster predictions with rationales for a question | | client.comments.list(commentable_id=..., commentable_type=...) | Get discussion comments on a question |
Data Coverage
• Domain: Politics / policy forecasting • Countries/Regions: Global (US policy focus) • Time range: Questions from ~2020 to present • Update frequency: Event-driven (new questions published, forecasts updated continuously) • Key data: Forecasting questions on geopolitics, national security, science/technology policy, economics, biosecurity, nuclear risk, AI governance
Discussion
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